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Ludlow Coop Elevator Company

19 minutes ago

11.14.25 MIDCO AFTERNOON COMMENTS

🌽 Corn Market Update
Corn futures wiped out most of the week's gains made in the last few sessions on Friday, as traders hit the sell button in abundance following the USDA's 11am data dump. All things considered, a 186 yield and 2.2 bil bu carry out could've pushed prices to a lot worse than 10 or 11 cent losses, as both were closer to the upper end of trade guess ranges than not. We would also mention that there was quite a bit of chatter going into the report surrounding cuts in both ethanol demand and export demand, and neither of these ended up occurring; if the USDA makes these adjustments later down the road, ending stocks would seemingly have room to swell further with there likely to not be a lot of production loss seen between now and January. Looking at the big picture from a price standpoint, even after today's sell-off the market is still trading in the same range its been in for the last two weeks, meaning we really haven't changed a whole lot. The highs made the last two days represent a new top end number, but otherwise, we see the 4.25-4.35 area likely to again contain the bulk of the market's action into next week.

🌱 Soybean Market Update
The soy complex sold off into the weekend on Friday, though the numbers seen in the USDA's report really weren't all that overly bearish. Ending stocks went down, the average farm price went up 50 cents, and exports were trimmed but not by as much as some feared, yet prices still tanked perhaps on the news that wasn't seen. One possible explanation for the sell-off could be that traders were disappointed in the quantity of sales that showed up to China on the daily catch-up list, but we would argue that if you thought China bought much more than what was announced you were blatantly ignoring hints and signals from the cash market that indicated all along that the market was perhaps getting ahead of its skis. Otherwise, we see little else to point to out of the data that came out today that would justify the market reaction. Like in corn, the big question here is what happens now, and at this point we would say this depends on what China's demand looks like over the next 6-8 months, which is much the same answer as it was coming into today.

🌾 Wheat Market Update
Wheat futures sold off to end the week in sympathy with the rest of the space and also as global production figures ticked up in a number of areas around the world. The US side of this morning's WASDE update had little to offer either side of the proverbial aisle, but here too, we see the selling as also possibly related to what data the market didn't end up seeing, as we assume traders see the one singular wheat flash sale to a destination not named China during the government shutdown as disappointing. That said, also like the other two markets, the sell-off this afternoon still didn't do a lot of damage to the charts, leaving direction into next week up in the air a bit; if today was a profit taking clear out, uptrends could easily resume net week. ... See MoreSee Less

Ludlow Coop Elevator Company

6 hours ago

11.14.25 MIDCO MORNING COMMENTS

Good morning! WASDE and Export Sales during the shutdown both out at 11am. Could be a wild one.

Macro:
• The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is working to release delayed economic data, prioritizing timely updates. China’s economic data showed weaker industrial production, slightly better retail sales, and ongoing declines in home prices, reflecting property sector challenges.
• Senate Democrats urged Trump to maintain export restrictions on China, citing national security risks tied to technology and strategic competition.

Interest Rates:
• Recent Federal Reserve statements have significantly lowered expectations for a December rate cut, with markets now pricing in roughly a 50% chance, down from near-certainty weeks ago. The data blackout from the government shutdown, persistent inflation, and unexpectedly hawkish remarks from officials like Boston Fed President Susan Collins have fueled caution. A hawkish faction within the Fed advocates pausing rate cuts, citing elevated inflation and uncertainty around tariff impacts, while dovish members like Miran, Waller, and Bowman push for bolder easing. Chair Powell is striving to maintain unity, adopting a neutral stance and framing December as a close call. Analysts see Powell facing a choice between holding rates steady or delivering a “hawkish cut” that signals the end of the easing cycle, particularly with a new FOMC voting lineup in January and Powell’s term concluding in May. Futures markets now indicate a higher likelihood of a January cut if December passes without action.
Trade War:
• The U.S. and Brazil are advancing toward a provisional trade agreement, potentially finalized this month, focusing on a framework for future talks in agriculture, energy, and manufacturing. This follows eased tariff tensions and aligns with the Trump administration’s affordability goals. China criticized the G7 for politicizing trade, despite its own history of using trade policy strategically.
• The U.S. is nearing trade deals with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Guatemala, expected within weeks, to boost access for U.S. agricultural and industrial products. These include targeted tariff relief and protections against digital services taxes. The Trump administration is also preparing tariff exemptions to lower food prices, addressing grocery inflation while maintaining broader tariff policies.
WASDE Estimates:
• The November WASDE is projected to slightly reduce U.S. 2025/26 corn stocks to ~2.125B bu due to a yield drop to 183.8 bpa, with production at ~16.55B bu. Soybean stocks may rise to 315M bu, with yield steady at 53.1 bpa and production at ~4.26B bu. Wheat stocks are expected at 868M bu. Globally, corn (282–283 MMT), soybean (124–125 MMT), and wheat (266 MMT) stocks largely unchanged. The trade is looking for the report to be looking for slightly supportive to corn, mildly bearish for soybeans, and neutral for wheat. ... See MoreSee Less