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Ludlow Coop Elevator Company

4 hours ago

3.6.26 MIDCO MORNING COMMENTS

Good morning. Friday brings more strength to the grain markets with most ag sectors into new recent highs. Corn has gotten back all the losses from the January 12th crop report and July beans now start with a 12. Chicago wheat is trading at the highs from a week ago. Unrest in the middle east is still the main driver with crude oil up sharply again this morning. Concerns about oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is the watch point. The higher energy markets are supporting those ag products that are linked to biofuel. Wheat is not in that category but is being driven by fund short covering. Equity markets are lower on the war concerns and the rising cost of energy prices. Board crush margins are up to near $2.20 a bushel and the oil share is over 51%. The February payrolls report showed a net loss of 92,000 jobs versus expectations of +50K. The unemployment rate in February ticked up slightly to 4.4%. Producer selling has picked up again the last few days with new crop corn getting in the mix with this trade above $4.75. It will be a warm day today with more rain slated over the week. The Delta will be very wet over the next few days. The increase in moisture this week across the Midwest has been a welcome sight but more timely rain will be needed. The time springs forward this weekend so plan accordingly. Next Tuesday is the monthly crop report. Plenty of news likely to happen over the weekend so that tone will set the direction for prices on Sunday night. Have a safe weekend. ... See MoreSee Less

Ludlow Coop Elevator Company

1 day ago

3.5.26 MIDCO MORNING COMMENTS

• Ag commodities drifted lower yesterday but are beginning the day mostly firmer, with beans leading the move higher.
• May26 corn futures will see first resistance this week at the 200-day moving average, around $4.48. Support will be seen between $4.36-$4.39. RSI is in the mid-50s, which continues to be neutral.
• May26 soybean futures will find resistance at the recent high of $11.85 and then at $12.00. On the other side, the 10-day moving average marks first support around $11.63. RSI is sitting around 70, which signals overbought territory.
• CIF corn dropped fast yesterday with FH March down a dime. Bean CIF also backed off with March now bid +87K. As freight works lower, CIF continues to follow suit. Improved river conditions due to recent rains have helped barges move efficiently and maximize drafts.
• The Department of Justice has started an investigation into the U.S. fertilizer industry to determine whether major companies engaged in price-fixing or other antitrust violations. The review was prompted by farmers and policymakers over elevated fertilizer prices, though no companies have been accused of wrongdoing at this time in the investigation.
• Officials from the EU have claimed that they do not expect tariffs on their exports to the U.S. to rise to the 15% that Trump has recently stated. Currently the tariff sits at 10% and with increasing trade tensions, the EU has decided to pause the ratification process of a trade deal between the two countries until more in know about the tariff situation in the U.S.
• Brazil bean export basis continues to fall and cash rumors had China buying another round of Brazilian beans yesterday, with the total estimated around 10-15 cargos.
• Tunisia is looking for beans for April. On the corn side, Thailand is searching for May corn and Honduras for June corn.
• The EIA Weekly Ethanol Production report showed production down 1.6% from last week, which marked a new four-week low. Ethanol stocks increased, which was a new marketing year high and the highest weekly figure since the week of April 11 last year.
• The Chinese government has indicated plans to increase overall grain output to 725 MMT by 2030. Because China doesn't have the scope to increase farmland or irrigation resources, they plan to prioritize yield gains through technology, soil protection, and seed innovation.
• The White House has officially submitted the nomination of Kevin Warsh to the Senate to serve as the Federal Reserve Chair with a 4-year term and as a member of the Fed Reserve Board of Governors for a 14-year term.
• Outside markets are trading mixed: crude oil futures are up $2.00+/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 330-340 points, and the U.S. dollar index is up 30-40 points.
• Today's reports include Weekly Export Sales. ... See MoreSee Less