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Ludlow Coop Elevator Company

15 hours ago

9/14/26 MIDCO AFTERNOON COMMENTS

Trade was mostly choppy and mixed across the CBOT on Monday, with the feed-grain markets seeing two-sided closes on either side of unchanged while the soy complex was generally firmer on end user buying following the break in prices to end the week last week. With the September WASDE update having not produced much of anything in terms of changes to the overall fundamental background in the markets, trader focus this week has shifted back towards the looming China meeting and the end-of-month stocks update, as well as the Midwest harvest that is going to gain steam in the days ahead.

🌽 Corn Market Update
Corn futures were quietly higher on Monday to get the week started, with buyers showing up on the day session open to end the overnight correction but the market still inside of Friday's wide range for the duration of the day. There's going to be an obvious shift in focus in the days and weeks ahead towards yield discussions and actual combine data and crop size, but it's important to remember that this is not the only market factor that is going to influence prices into fall and winter. Beyond the ongoing geopolitical situations in the Black Sea and in the Middle East, inflationary fears are again becoming a real concern and there's also a looming El Niño that could cause extreme irregularities in global weather patterns. Corn futures are not just supported by falling US crop estimates and what is know a well-known story regarding record demand.



🌱 Soybean Market Update
The soy complex was higher Monday, with much of the buying said to be the result of end-user pricing both in the beans and the meal following the selling seen out of the report on Friday last week. While world energy values and the price of soybean oil remain front and center in terms of market fundamentals, political posturing ahead of next week's Trump-Xi summit in D.C. is going to gain in importance over the next ten days and this could make daily trade increasingly volatile. With the funds already sitting at a record net-long futures position, its difficult to assess whether profit taking and risk reduction will have more impact than speculative buying on the long side that is hopeful for additional ag purchase agreements, but its this answer that likely dictates price flows over the next ten days will harvest still not quite ready to roll across most of the Midwest.

🌾 Wheat Market Update
Wheat futures saw two-sided price action on Monday, trading higher throughout most of the overnight and morning before then selling off on the Trump Truth Social post regarding progress with Ukraine and Russia. That there was no confirmation of the agreement from either of the two sides allowed values work back off the lows into the close, but it remains the case that headline risk as a result of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty remains the biggest threat to prices in the short term. Export capacity out of the Black Sea is less than half of normal during peak season, and to put it simply, this is still the bottom line story to the world wheat market; until this changes, prices should continue to see some measure of support on corrections. ... See MoreSee Less