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Ludlow Coop Elevator Company

11 hours ago

12.09.25 MIDCO MORNING COMMENTS

It’s report day and commodities are mixed this morning. Traders are not expecting any production changes in today’s report, just demand changes. Estimates are below for reference. The Fed’s final policy meeting of 2025 is underway and market participants are expecting a quarter-point interest rate cut. Trump is talking tariffs again, this time signaling he may impose fresh levies on ag products including Canadian fertilizer and Indian rice. Trump unveiled a $12 bln aid package for farmers hit by the trade war yesterday afternoon. His admin approved $11 bln. in payments by the end of February. There was an additional $1 billion earmarked for specialty crops producers not covered under other programs. Ag Sec Rollins said the money would come from the CCC and would be offset in part by revenue brought in from tariffs. News is circulating this morning that Argy’s Economy Minister announced it was going to lower export taxes on grains again, w/ beans going from 26% to 24%, products from 24.5% to 22.5%, wheat from 9.5% to 7.5%, and corn from 9.5% to 8.5%. It is believed the cuts will immediately go into effect but how long they will run is currently unclear. Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 metric tons beans to China for 25/26 Monday morning. YTD soybean inspections are off approximately 45% from LY while YTD corn inspections are up roughly 70% from a YA. December gulf loadings will be the 1st U.S. soy cargos bound for China since May. China is set to auction 512 mt’s of imported beans on December 11th, . Some feel this is to make room for state-ordered soy purchases. This marks Sinograin’s 1st bean auction in 3 months. Malaysia is said to be looking for corn for Jan corn and Japan for Jan/Feb corn. Global buyers continue to price the U.S. against Argentina. Corn CIF backed off 2c for Dec yesterday, while Jan fell a penny. The CIF soybean market was quiet though it felt a bit heavy late in the day. There is talk that a few folks are long nearby and the business they have done is more pointed toward Jan, leaving them looking to sell to avoid barges sitting in NOLA, costing money as they wait to load a vessel. Barge freight continues to be mixed, as river systems deal with logistical issues caused by winter conditions. Ice has begun to form on the upper reaches of the IL River and water levels, overall, are also becoming concerning, given the lack of moisture. Domestically, corn processor values were mixed Monday as was crusher bean basis. Western corn basis fell 7¢ nearby in Muscatine while Columbus improved 2¢. Front month western bean basis was up a nickel in Council Bluffs and Des Moines. IA Falls was a nickel weaker. In the east, river beans basis softened with Havana down 2c and St. Louis off a penny. Crusher values were little changed other than Sidney, OH up 6¢ for Dec/Jan. Corn processor bids were quiet and river corn was slightly weaker. Weather in the Midwest looks to warm up a bit with less snow over the next two weeks. Most longer term forecasts still call for a cold/snowy conditions around the end of the year. ... See MoreSee Less

Ludlow Coop Elevator Company

1 day ago

12.08.25 MIDCO AFTERNOON COMMENTS

🌽 Corn Market Update
Rinse and repeat in the corn market on Monday, as values traded in generally the same range seen most every day last week and as there continues to be little to nothing new to the space from a news standpoint. With there being no production updates expected out of the report tomorrow, traders will be watching to see if the USDA makes any adjustments to exports or ethanol use, though nothing notable is expected. Murmurs in the space the past several days would have one believe that while not a lot of change is expected in tomorrow's update, the general consensus is that some measure of production cuts will likely be offset with a reduction in feed and residual use, leaving ending stocks in the same general ballpark they are now between now and January.

🌱 Soybean Market Update

Soybean futures again traded lower on Monday despite another round of sales showing up on this morning's daily wire to China and also another round of weekly sales that showed China booked several cargoes. Like we mentioned last week, it just seems traders are becoming uninterested in the near-daily rhetoric surrounding China, and are no longer getting excited when a few cargoes here or there show up on the daily run. In our opinion, it feels at this point that it likely takes some amount of purchases over the 12 MMT mark to get anyone excited, as it would seem anything up until there is going to be considered old news. As it pertains to tomorrow's report, we also don't expect a ton of change here with no production adjustments due, but would caution the odds are likely higher for either export or crush updates here than they are in corn. It seems everyone is in general agreement that the current 1.635 bil bu is too high, its just a matter of by how much and how quickly does USDA adjust it.

🌾 Wheat Market Update

Wheat futures had another quiet day on Monday, as March futures have traded between 5.30 and 5.45 for the last 11 sessions. Like corn, an ongoing lack of fresh news has led to a real lack of activity here on a daily basis and we don't expect this to change much in the short term unless something new happens in the Russia/Ukraine situation or a notable weather shift occurs somewhere around the world that would impact production somewhere. Without one of these things, futures prices likely stay rangebound between $5-5.50. ... See MoreSee Less