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Ludlow Coop Elevator Company

24 hours ago

11.26.25 MIDCO AFTERNOON COMMENTS

🌽 Corn Market Update
Corn futures saw one of the their better days of the past couple weeks on Wednesday, though there wasn't really any one specific reason to point to for the strength. Its hard to know exactly where the funds are positioned with data still a long way from being current, but if they are short, position covering ahead of what is more or a less a four day weekend for a lot of traders is one possible explanation for the day's action. There was little else of note throughout the day though besides a rumored cash corn sale to South Korea and a weekly ethanol report that was on the stronger side of expectations. From a big picture standpoint, the job of the market is to find a price level that spurs sufficient demand, and evidence would indicate that current prices are doing that.

🌱 Soybean Market Update
Other than another round of rumored cash business to China this morning, it was a quiet day in the soy complex with the beans and oil closing higher while the meal was near unchanged. That there was no confirmation of these sales this morning from FAS doesn't necessarily mean that they didn't occur, just that they may not have been completed before yesterday's 11am central time reporting deadline; the sales could very well show up Friday morning. We don't mean to sound like eternal pessimists, but the business just continues to be a long way from what was pledged by President Trump and his team with just a little over a month left to go in 2025. The buying is better than it not happening, but China continuing to buy beans from the US at some 40-50 cents premium to Brazil is not economically sustainable.

🌾 Wheat Market Update
Not a lot happening Wednesday in the wheat market, as Chicago futures closed the day higher mostly on spill-over buying from corn and on a possible light bit of short covering ahead of the Thursday holiday and shortened day of trade on Friday. Nothing new on the Russia/Ukraine front today, with news outlets continuing to indicate that Ukraine had agreed to the latest peace plan proposed by the US but that there were still details to be worked out, which presumably include land and borders. Trump on Tuesday walked back a Thursday deadline for Ukraine to accept the deal, which leaves us unsure as to what the next steps in the situation will be. ... See MoreSee Less

Ludlow Coop Elevator Company

1 day ago

11.26.25 MIDCO MORNING COMMENTS

. Wednesday ag trade is quiet and in light volume again to start the last full trading session of the week this week, with the slow trade seen the previous two days likely to be even slower ahead of tomorrow's Thanksgiving holiday. China and headlines/rumors surrounding their relationship with the US and whether or not they're buying soybeans continues to be by far the largest talking point in the space and we just have little new to discuss here. Yes, China is back buying US beans; and yes, the daily sales flashes are a positive; but as we've found out this week, there clearly hasn't actually been a deal signed yet regardless of how much Trump and Bessent want to claim there has been, and until this happens (and frankly even after that if it does happen) China is not bound to anything. What business they've done over the past few weeks is a far cry from the 12 MMTs or 25 MMTs or any other target they may have thrown out there, and until there is evidence that is no longer the case, there will be a significant amount of pessimism regarding the situation. Corn futures to start Wednesday are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and Chicago wheat futures are trading unchanged to a penny higher. Products are quietly mixed, soybean meal is unchanged to 50 cents lower and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed also, crude oil futures are down 10-20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 50 points and the US$ index is up 10-20 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 90 points.

• Grain markets are firmer this morning as we approach first notice day for December futures. The CZ/CH spread has widened to –15, with roughly 4,500 contracts currently bid at that level. Soybean spreads are firmer this morning with SF/SH at -9.
• Corn basis was mostly steady yesterday. Most processors remain bid against the CZ, though we expect many to begin bidding vs. the CH today or Friday. Western processors that have already rolled to CH have firmed their bids by a couple of cents.
• Reuters reports that China has purchased an estimated 12–14 cargoes of U.S. soybeans for January shipment, marking a notable round of buying and reinforcing signs of renewed Chinese demand. The buying comes amid tighter South American supply availability, more competitive U.S. pricing, and continued diplomatic pressure from Washington for China to accelerate agricultural imports.
• China issued a warning to Japan on Wednesday regarding reports that Japan plans to deploy missiles on Yonaguni Island near Taiwan, calling it “an extremely dangerous move.” Tensions have risen since earlier this month, when Japan signaled that any Chinese attack on Taiwan could legally constitute a “survival-threatening situation.”
• Reminder: Friday is first notice day for December futures. Please evaluate any December positions. Market is closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving and will reopen on Friday at 830am and close at noon. ... See MoreSee Less