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Ludlow Coop Elevator Company

2 hours ago

12.10.25 MIDCO MORNING COMMENTS

Good morning. Grain prices are lower with little change in news overnight. The USDA did not change anything on the bean and wheat balance sheets yesterday. They raised corn exports by 125 mbu., which tightened ending stocks a bit more than expected. Now the trade can debate what the final yield will be for the next month. Argentina lowered their export taxes a couple of days ago, which was deemed as bearish due to more likely farmer selling there. Ag trade rep Greer stated yesterday that the timeline for China to buy the 12 MMT of U.S. beans is now “by the end of the growing season.” That probably adds more confusion because nobody knows when that is. The deadline has moved from the end of the calendar year to the end of February to now this comment from Greer. If you look at just daily flashes, China has accounted for 2.845 MMT of soybean purchases. There are a few more than that out there, but an exact total is still hard to quantify. Basis levels are still hanging in there as the producer has slowed selling, especially on soybeans. All of a sudden, the gap from October 27th on January soybeans is back in play. It would be filled on a trade down to $10.63. The weekly ethanol figures are out this morning. The CFTC did announce it was going to get more aggressive on putting out fund data. It should have current data out by the end of the month as opposed to the original schedule at the end of January. The FED announces its decision today at 1 p.m. central. Still expecting a ¼ point decline. Snow will move through the Midwest later this week and weekend. 4 to 5 inches is possible in this first round and will favor the northern half of Illinois. An extreme cold blast is coming Sunday. Prepare accordingly. Have a safe day. ... See MoreSee Less

Ludlow Coop Elevator Company

1 day ago

12.09.25 MIDCO MORNING COMMENTS

It’s report day and commodities are mixed this morning. Traders are not expecting any production changes in today’s report, just demand changes. Estimates are below for reference. The Fed’s final policy meeting of 2025 is underway and market participants are expecting a quarter-point interest rate cut. Trump is talking tariffs again, this time signaling he may impose fresh levies on ag products including Canadian fertilizer and Indian rice. Trump unveiled a $12 bln aid package for farmers hit by the trade war yesterday afternoon. His admin approved $11 bln. in payments by the end of February. There was an additional $1 billion earmarked for specialty crops producers not covered under other programs. Ag Sec Rollins said the money would come from the CCC and would be offset in part by revenue brought in from tariffs. News is circulating this morning that Argy’s Economy Minister announced it was going to lower export taxes on grains again, w/ beans going from 26% to 24%, products from 24.5% to 22.5%, wheat from 9.5% to 7.5%, and corn from 9.5% to 8.5%. It is believed the cuts will immediately go into effect but how long they will run is currently unclear. Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 metric tons beans to China for 25/26 Monday morning. YTD soybean inspections are off approximately 45% from LY while YTD corn inspections are up roughly 70% from a YA. December gulf loadings will be the 1st U.S. soy cargos bound for China since May. China is set to auction 512 mt’s of imported beans on December 11th, . Some feel this is to make room for state-ordered soy purchases. This marks Sinograin’s 1st bean auction in 3 months. Malaysia is said to be looking for corn for Jan corn and Japan for Jan/Feb corn. Global buyers continue to price the U.S. against Argentina. Corn CIF backed off 2c for Dec yesterday, while Jan fell a penny. The CIF soybean market was quiet though it felt a bit heavy late in the day. There is talk that a few folks are long nearby and the business they have done is more pointed toward Jan, leaving them looking to sell to avoid barges sitting in NOLA, costing money as they wait to load a vessel. Barge freight continues to be mixed, as river systems deal with logistical issues caused by winter conditions. Ice has begun to form on the upper reaches of the IL River and water levels, overall, are also becoming concerning, given the lack of moisture. Domestically, corn processor values were mixed Monday as was crusher bean basis. Western corn basis fell 7¢ nearby in Muscatine while Columbus improved 2¢. Front month western bean basis was up a nickel in Council Bluffs and Des Moines. IA Falls was a nickel weaker. In the east, river beans basis softened with Havana down 2c and St. Louis off a penny. Crusher values were little changed other than Sidney, OH up 6¢ for Dec/Jan. Corn processor bids were quiet and river corn was slightly weaker. Weather in the Midwest looks to warm up a bit with less snow over the next two weeks. Most longer term forecasts still call for a cold/snowy conditions around the end of the year. ... See MoreSee Less